During last month’s Pakistan-India military escalation, the ports remained open and functional. Civilian aircraft flew as scheduled and international trade vessels crossed Pakistan’s sea lanes undisturbed—even as an Indian strike group loomed offshore.

Some Indian leaders continue to issue threats of containment and their navy frequently stages forward deployments. However, Pakistan’s maritime doctrine has entered a new phase. It’s not just about defending the coastline; it’s also about upending hostile strategies before they take shape.

Naval deployment is no longer limited to periods of hostilities. Instead, the navy remains in a state of perpetual readiness, even during peacetime. “This ‘forward presence’ enables strategic deployment at locations beyond the nation’s primary bases or naval strongholds. Such a posture allows a swift transition into full war mode,” says Rear Admiral Naveed Ahmad (retired).

To sustain such a high level of vigilance, Pakistan uses a robust and integrated surveillance architecture. Through round-the-clock Marine Domain Awareness, the Navy maintains real-time tracking and monitoring of hostile navies. Intelligence flows seamlessly from this system, ensuring tactical and operational flexibility. “In this layered surveillance network, long-endurance platforms such as the P-3C Orion and Embraer aircraft play a vital reconnaissance role. Commercial satellites provide an additional layer of situational awareness. Together, they ensure that naval headquarters, regional commands and individual units have a synchronised and comprehensive operational picture,”says Ahmad.

This surveillance capability was tested during the recent deployment of India’s aircraft carrier strike group. The Indian formation—including the INS Vikrant aircraft carrier, MiG aircraft, 8-10 protective frigates and a refueller—remained stationed 400 nautical miles away from Pakistan’s territorial waters, beyond even India’s own Exclusive Economic Zone.

Ahmed dismisses Indian claims—such as those made by the Indian defence minister—that they had successfully “contained the Pakistan Navy to the harbour.”

“To make this a real possibility, India would needto bring its carrier group significantly closer for missile or air strikes. Tucked away deep inside their EEZ, they posed no credible offensive threat,” he says.

During the standoff, Pakistan Navy effectively monitored and deterred Indian Navy P-8I surveillance aircraft and Sea Guardian UAVs, showcasing firm control over its maritime domain. Quieter and stealthier submarines, armed with advanced sensors and weapons, remained submerged and posed a persistent threat to the Indian strike group—forcing it to maintain distance.

Despite the heightened tensions, Pakistan’s critical ports—Karachi and Bin Qasim—continued uninterrupted operations. There was no pause in commercial berthing or interference in civilian air operations.

The sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) through which international shipping flows—including traffic meant for Indian destinations to and from the Gwadar port near the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb choke point—remained secure under Pakistan Navy’s watch.

Aside from maritime provocations, the threats issued by Indian leaders—such as targeting Pakistani youth and children—suggest a shift towards hybrid warfare. This could involve coercive subversion and increased use of proxies like the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, some separatist groups and strikes against Kashmiri leadersin Pakistan. Indian involvement in these activities, Rear Admiral Naveed Ahmed says, has already been exposed in the US, Canada and some other Western countries.

Several flashpoints could trigger conflict at sea. These range from accidental maritime encounters and cyber disruptions to deliberate strikes on ports, coastal installations and military infrastructure. Without a calibrated response mechanism, even a minor incident could escalate into full-scale naval warfare.

Rear Admiral Naveed mentions a plausible scenario in which India might attempt to intercept or quarantine commercial cargo vessels in southeastern SLOCs near Indonesia or Sri Lanka—on the pretext of transporting suspicious HAZMAT cargo etc. High-speed naval passes or warning shots could then be used as intimidation tactics.

During the May standoff, Pakistan Navy effectively monitored and deterred Indian Navy P-8I surveillance aircraft and Sea Guardian UAVs, showcasing firm control over its maritime domain. Quieter and stealthier submarines, armed with advanced sensors and weapons, remained posed a persistent threat to the Indian strike group—forcing it to maintain distance.

India may also attempt “grey-zone” maneuvers—such as close shadowing of commercial vessels or aggressive posturing at sea. “But such actions won’t go unanswered,” Naveed warns. “They could provoke retaliatory strikes from Pakistan’s anti-ship missiles or submarines against Indian commercial shipping emerging from Bab el-Mandeb or the Strait of Hormuz. India would then be forced to escort these ships with naval frigates—turning them into targets.”

US Admiral James Stavridis (retired), a former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, has noted that Indian Ocean offers ample room for maritime adventurism. Given the lack of civilian casualties and media visibility, he warns, Indian leadership might perceive a naval clash here as less escalatory.

Rear Admiral Naveed Ahmed interprets this as a form of strategic encouragement to India. “If the Indian Navy conducts a provocative show of force in the northern Indian Ocean, it will not go unpunished,” he says. “Any provocation will be met with a proportionally higher response. Whether this spirals or remains limited will then depend on the magnitude of damage caused.”

Admiral Stavridis says that India may find it tempting to patrol aggressively off Karachi, using its submarines. Even without a direct attack, such actions could provoke a sortie by Pakistan’s Navy,” Naveed Ahmed says.

Rear Admiral Faisal Shah (retired) warns of another high-risk scenario—Sir Creek, a swampy, disputed territory where both navies remain deployed in an eyeball-to-eyeball posture.

He notes: “There is full awareness of enemy bases, marine posts, depots and logistical hubs. The marshy geography and daily tidal shifts pose unique challenges. Tactics here are shaped by these constant transformations.”

Being a porous zone, Sir Creek could become the stage for a false-flag operation. Rear Admiral Faisal fears that India might fabricate a scenario—such as intercepting a fisherman’s boat and labeling it as a terrorist vessel aiming to ram an Indian warship.

India may also conduct aggressive maneuvers near Karachi Port as a diversionary tactic to seize Sir Creek, says Rear Admiral Shah. This could include infiltrating saboteurs to strike key harbour infrastructure. Shah adds that such maneuvers could also pave the way for a surprise attack on another naval base.

“Such a stratagem has been war-gamed repeatedly,” he notes. “If executed, it will strigger an immediate missile barrage on Mumbai and Indian naval installations and units along the Rajasthan coast.”

Pakistan has significantly upgraded its maritime deterrence. According to naval experts, the Navy’s enhanced offensive and defensive capabilities—including modern sea-denial systems and robust terminal defence mechanisms—have transformed its posture into one of regional power projection.

The Navy’s terminal defence systems include Close-In Weapon Systems (CIWS), Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs), and advanced anti-missile technologies capable of intercepting incoming threats. With hypersonic speeds (Mach 5+), the PL-282 anti-ship ballistic missile creates a wide buffer zone, forcing enemy assets—aircraft carriers, frigates and destroyers—into the deep sea.

They also allow freedom of action against key Indian coastal commercial and military targets at risk, neutralising the comparative advantage of India’s Dhanush ship-launched ballistic missile system.

Electronic warfare capabilities have also matured, enabling radar jamming, communication disruption and real-time intelligence gathering. With AI integration, the Navy now possesses full-spectrum, cross-domain warfare capacity—significantly amplifying its strategic reach.

India has long tried to establish a “new normal”—seeking conventional conflict spaces under the nuclear umbrella. This approach collapsed spectacularly in 2019, resulting in the downing of top-tier Indian aircraft and the destruction of critical air bases.

The escalation ladder in the maritime domain is slippery and unforgiving. History and hard lessons remind us that unchecked posturing can push rival nations past the point of no return.

The writer is a senior The News staffer in Karachi