As May draws to a close, Lahore and the broader Punjab region are grappling with an unrelenting heat wave, emblematic of the escalating challenges posed by climate change. This extreme weather event underscores the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate and adapt to the increasing frequency and severity of heat waves in Pakistan.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has issued advisories indicating that Hot Day Warning conditions are expected to persist over central and upper districts of the Punjab for the next few days. There is also a possibility of a Heatwave Emergency developing over southern districts in the coming days. Temperatures are forecast to remain significantly above normal, with central and upper Punjab experiencing 5-7°C above average, and southern Punjab facing 6-8°C above average temperatures.

As a densely populated urban centre, Lahore is particularly susceptible to what is called the urban heat island effect. This term describes a phenomenon whereby built-up areas (like urban areas with numerous buildings, roads and manmade infrastructure) experience higher temperatures than surrounding rural regions. It has been noted around the world that as infrastructure development gobbles up green spaces and natural landscapes, temperatures increase. The overall lack of green spaces as housing societies take shape in lieu of agricultural land, extensive concrete surfaces as road after road is built, and high vehicular emissions contribute to elevated temperatures, exacerbating the impact of the heat wave on urban residents.

It’s widely known that prolonged exposure to extreme heat poses significant health risks. There was undoubtedly wisdom in the traditional approach of staying indoors or in shade during summer afternoons, using certain types of foods and drinks that traditional medicine considered ‘cooling’ and limiting daytime activity. However, with a nine-to-five routine now firmly in place, and school timings that place children in the way of sunlight and extreme heat ingrained in our society, the health risks of heat exposure, including heat exhaustion, heatstroke and exacerbation of pre-existing health conditions, are very real. Vulnerable populations such as the elderly, school going children and outdoor workers are at heightened risk.

A recent World Bank report, Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment: Pakistan, indicates that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves in the South Asian region, Pakistan being at risk of major climatic changes. Projections suggest a significant rise in the number of extremely hot days in the country. This will have profound implications for public health. Not only that, the impact of rising temperature will also extend to agriculture and the use and availability of water resources.

Heat waves have far-reaching socioeconomic consequences, especially for developing nations like Pakistan. In the Punjab, agricultural productivity is at risk of being adversely affected due to heat stress on crops, leading to food security concerns. Labour productivity declines, particularly in outdoor occupations, impacting development work. Additionally, increased energy demand for cooling strains our already brittle power supply system, leading to outages and system-wide issues that exacerbate the situation.

The summer of 2024 was documented as the hottest on record, according to an Asian Development Bank report on the impacts of extreme heat in Pakistan, titled Extreme Heat: Regional Impacts and Gender-Transformative Heat Action Plans.

The report underscored the multifaceted risks posed by extreme heat, including increased mortality rates, reduced labour productivity and heightened stress on healthcare systems. It also mentioned the disproportionate effects of heat stress on women, who often cannot simply leave their homes to cool off and must attend to ill or young family members; as well as those engaged in informal labour sectors, highlighting the need for gender-sensitive interventions.

It is imperative to implement urban greening initiatives, such as planting trees and creating green spaces, to mitigate the urban heat island effect. A Miyawaki project urban forest was initiated a few years ago, but large scale replication of that initiative has yet to come about.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department and the Provincial Disaster Management Authority must take steps to enhance heat wave forecasting and public alert systems to provide timely information and guidance to the public. Directives from the PDMA must be given due consideration by the Health and Education Departments. The policymakers must understand that flexibility in scheduling will be beneficial for the general population.

There is also a need to strengthen the healthcare infrastructure to manage increased patient loads during heat waves. This includes training medical personnel and ensuring adequate supplies at all kinds of healthcare facilities.

Infrastructure development using resilient materials that can withstand extreme temperatures, including heat-resistant building materials and cooling systems, must be encouraged and mainstreamed.

Finally, the energy sector must adopt capable systems that allow upscaling to ensure uninterrupted power supply during peak demand periods, as emphasised by UNICEF’s findings on the critical role of energy in mitigating heat wave impacts.

Extreme weather conditions affecting Lahore and the Punjab are a stark reminder of the escalating impacts of climate change. The need of the hour is immediate and coordinated action across various sectors to build resilience and protect vulnerable populations against the adverse effects of future heat waves.

Ahmed Ahsan is a development sector professional with nearly a decade of experience in communications and reporting. He has supported the implementation of the World Bank’s Disaster and Climate Resilience Improvement Project and ADB’s Flood Emergency Reconstruction and Resilience Project in Pakistan